Market Trends

The European grocery market is the largest retail sector in Europe, estimated at €2.0 trillion in sales in 2020. The sector is defined by long leases, strong tenant covenants and stable rental growth, appealing to investors looking for longer and more robust income streams.
Greenman understand the importance of being proactive and as such we closely follow key trends affecting the market, suporting our tenants in their new concepts and strategies and ensuring our retail centres remain up to date and relevant for the long term.

Market Analysis

Will customer intentions drive grocer changes?

Omnichannel Retail

Food & Grocery Online Channel Market Share (2020, %)

5.3%

Weighted
Average

Most Consumers Expect to Shop Online More in 2021 than they did in 2020

Sustainability

European consumers are buying based on sustainability and healthy, hygienic packaging – Shopping behaviour since COVID-19 started, % of respondents in Europe

Buying based on: UK Germany France Spain Italy
Healthy & hygienic packaging

+9

+7

+7

+16

+12
Retailers promotion of sustainable solutions

+7

+8

+3

+17

+12
Sutainable/eco-friendly products

+8

+10

+9

+14

+9
How companies take care of the safety of their employees

 +8

+5

+7

+16

+11
Company’s purpose/values

+2

-4

-1

+10

+5

Q: Which best describes how often you are doing each of the following items? Possible answers: “Doing less since coronavirus started”; “Doing about the same since coronavirus started”; “Doing more since coronavirus started.”

Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease time spent from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase time spent.

Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Europe Consumer Pulse Survey 11/9-11/16/2020, n = 5,232 (Italy, France, Germany, Spain, UK) sampled and weighted to match European general population 18+ years

CEO’s Top 7 trends they expect to shape the Grocery Industry in 2021-22

Customer Intentions Guide Key Changes for Grocery Retail in 2021

Net share of consumers, %

I plan to…… Germany France Poland UK Netherlands Spain Sweden Italy Switzerland Russia European Average
Buy groceries online 5 12 11 16 9 13 11 7 9 11 10
Look for ways to save money when Shopping 27 33 35 38 27 44 26 39 35 36 34
Actively search for best promotions 23 27 32 22 20 34 19 40 24 34 27
Switch to less expensive products 11 11 15 24 15 30 9 18 20 17 17
Focus on healthy eating and nutrition 37 31 34 29 30 36 27 32 29 16 30
Spend more on regional or local products 31 34 22 21 20 30 20 31 29 6 24
Spend more on environmentally friendly Products 24 24 22 17 16 26 15 20 21 2 19
Buy imported products -34 -37 -18 -25 -19 -23 -25 -20 -31 -22 -25

¹ Question: Which of the following statements best describes your attitude toward grocery shopping in 2021 as compared with 2020? Answers: More, about the same, less. The percentage is calculated as net sentiment (deducting the percentage of people intending to do the activity less in 2021 vs 2020 from the percentage of people intending to do the activity more).